A world without coffee?

Coffee has never been so precious. Across global markets, prices have reached record highs, driven by extreme weather events, strained logistics, and steadily growing demand. Yet behind the cup that punctuates our daily lives lies a complex world of smallholder farmers, fragile supply chains, and vulnerable landscapes. In this article, we explore the current state of the global coffee market, the causes of soaring prices, consumption trends, and environmental challenges—while showing how agroforestry projects like Treedom’s can help make the supply chain more sustainable and offer a future to the communities cultivating this precious plant.

The state of coffee today

Coffee is grown in over 70 countries, with global production exceeding 10 million tons in 2024. The top producers are Brazil—an undisputed leader with more than one-third of global output—followed by Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. Brazil dominates both the Arabica and Robusta markets, while Vietnam and Indonesia mainly focus on Robusta. Production is largely in the hands of smallholder farmers, who account for around 80% of global supply, often working plots smaller than two hectares.

The quality and price of beans depend on climate conditions, altitude, and farming practices, with the specialty and sustainable coffee markets growing rapidly. Traceability and ethical supply chains are becoming a key factor for conscious consumers, creating new opportunities for projects that combine stable income for smallholders, biodiversity, and climate resilience through sustainable practices.

The price surge: causes

In recent years, coffee prices have skyrocketed, mainly driven by extreme weather events. Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia have all faced droughts, frosts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall that reduced yields and quality. FAO reported that in 2024, global reserves hit historically low levels, amplifying market volatility. Studies published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems and reports such as specialtycoffee.id highlight how climate change has disrupted harvest seasons, making the availability of high-quality beans increasingly uncertain.

Global logistics—facing high transport costs, labor shortages, and geopolitical tensions—adds further pressure to prices.

Meanwhile, demand continues to grow, especially in specialty segments and emerging markets, now outpacing available supply. This combination of factors has made coffee not only more expensive but also more unpredictable: Arabica and Robusta futures have reached unprecedented peaks, with fluctuations in some cases exceeding $400 per pound, according to Barchart.com and Accio.

The growth in demand also appears to be structural. For years, global consumption has steadily increased, fueled both by established markets and by emerging economies where coffee-based beverages are rapidly gaining popularity. The specialty segment is growing faster than average, pushing producers to differentiate with quality, origin, and traceability.

According to Precedence Research, the global coffee market, valued at around $245 billion in 2024, could reach $381 billion by 2034. Consumer interest in sustainable and ethical coffee supply chains is also on the rise, with growing appreciation for agroforestry practices and biodiverse cultivation. This trend not only shapes roasters’ commercial strategies but also offers smallholder farmers tangible opportunities for stable income and greater international recognition.

The impact on the environment and smallholder farmers

Coffee cultivation has a significant environmental footprint. Expansion of farmland, deforestation, and intensive use of fertilizers and pesticides contribute to biodiversity loss, soil erosion, and increased CO₂ emissions. According to CarbonClick, global coffee transportation adds further emissions, especially where supply chains are long and complex. The combined effect of climate change and unsustainable farming practices increases the vulnerability of coffee plants and reduces the land’s ability to sequester carbon.

Agroforestry systems, however, provide a concrete solution: intercropping coffee with diverse tree species offers shade, reduces erosion, retains soil moisture, and promotes biodiversity. They also capture more carbon, strengthening both land resilience and smallholder incomes, while helping mitigate the impacts of climate change.

This is even more relevant when considering the role of smallholder coffee farmers, the backbone of the global supply chain. They face enormous challenges: unpredictable climate, rising production costs, and the need to maintain high quality standards. According to the FAO and studies in Frontiers, many farmers see revenues rise when prices increase, but gains are often offset by higher risks and costs.

Quello che possiamo fare, insieme

Sustainable supply chains and ethical projects, like those supported by Treedom, represent an opportunity to improve incomes and economic security. Take our project in Guatemala, where—thanks to a virtuous supply chain built in collaboration with AMKA and roasters in the CSC (Certified Specialty Coffee) association—the women of the Dona Lucero cooperative earn fair wages, up to 50% more than the local market. Or look at our work in Nepal, where intercropping coffee with trees on terraced land generates new income and protects the landscape.