What (really) happens to the trees we plant

An analysis of the role of local communities in tree survival: the case of baobabs in South Africa

Intro

In recent years, tree planting has become one of the most widespread strategies to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem degradation. No one knows this better than we do. Agroforestry, reforestation, and afforestation programs are being implemented globally, supported by governments, international organizations, and private initiatives.

However, despite the growing number of trees being planted, one crucial issue remains relatively underexplored—and often underestimated: the medium- to long-term survival of those trees.

The paper

 “The involvement of community members significantly increases the success of tree planting projects – a case study of baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) planting, South Africa” directly addresses this point, analyzing comparatively the survival and growth of trees planted with and without the active involvement of local communities. As you might expect, this is a crucial topic for us at Treedom.

The study makes a significant contribution to the reforestation debate by shifting the focus from the planting phase to the less visible but decisive stage of post-planting management. Here, we present it in a structured and analytical way, leaving its interpretation to a separate editorial.

Ecological and socio-economic context

The focus of the study is the African baobab (Adansonia digitata), an iconic species of semi-arid ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa. The baobab plays a fundamental role both ecologically and socio-economically:

• it contributes to the stability of local ecosystems
• it provides food and nutritional resources
• it generates income through fruit harvesting and sales

In the Vhembe region of South Africa, baobab fruit collection represents a significant component of the rural economy.
Despite high seed production and good viability, natural regeneration of baobabs is limited. The main issue is not germination, but the survival of young plants, strongly influenced by:

• water availability
• microenvironmental conditions
• browsing pressure

The early growth phase is therefore the main bottleneck for species regeneration. These factors are compounded by broader dynamics:

• climate change (higher temperatures, irregular rainfall)
• expansion of agricultural activities
• increasing livestock numbers

All of which make the survival of young plants increasingly difficult.

The Baobab Guardians Project

In response to these challenges, the Baobab Foundation launched the Baobab Guardians Project, a reforestation program based on the direct involvement of local communities.
The model is relatively simple but well structured:

• community members are selected as “guardians”
• they receive training on tree planting and care
• they commit to:
  • watering the plants
  • monitoring their growth
  • protecting them from animals and disturbances

In many ways, this model mirrors the one we apply in Treedom projects worldwide. The project involved five villages in the Vhembe district and led to the planting of 101 trees between 2014 and 2020.

A distinctive feature is the incentive system:

• guardians receive compensation proportional to tree growth
• once a tree reaches 3 meters in height, a certificate is awarded

This threshold is not arbitrary: it represents the point at which the tree is considered sufficiently developed to withstand browsing pressure.

Research methodology

Sample and data collection

• 101 trees planted with guardians
• 60 trees (historical dataset) planted without protection

Data on “guarded” baobabs were collected between 2014 and 2024, with a final assessment in 2025. For each tree, the following were recorded: height, circumference, canopy area, health status, presence of flowers and fruits, and overall survival status.

In parallel, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 57 guardians to understand their motivations and level of engagement.

Statistical analysis

Tree survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, which estimates survival probability over time. Differences between guarded and unguarded trees were tested using the log-rank test.

Additional analyses examined:

• causes of mortality
• tree growth
• the potential influence of guardians’ socio-demographic characteristics

Results

Survival

The most significant finding concerns the difference in survival between guarded and unguarded trees—a striking gap.

• Unguarded trees: median survival of 4 months → about 50% die within this period. After 12 months, only 15% remained alive.
• Guarded trees: 100% survival after the first year and even after 10 years.

This is not surprising, as the greatest challenges occur in the first months of life and decrease significantly after the first three years.

Causes of mortality

The analysis shows that the main causes of mortality are not what one might expect. It is not drought—almost negligible in the data—but livestock activity (browsing and trampling).

• 83% of deaths in unprotected trees are caused by livestock
• only 7% in guarded trees

Other factors—such as drought or, conversely, root rot due to excess water—play a marginal role.

This suggests that grazing pressure is the main limiting factor in early growth stages.

In much of sub-Saharan Africa, livestock farming is based on extensive free-grazing systems: cattle, goats, and donkeys move daily across open landscapes, often without fences, feeding directly on available vegetation. It is a deeply rooted model, essential for the livelihoods of millions of people, but one that implies a constant presence of animals in the landscape.

In this context, young plants are highly exposed: browsing and trampling are structural, not occasional factors, significantly affecting survival in the first years of life.

Tree growth

Guarded trees show rapid growth in the early years, with most reaching 3 meters in height between 2.5 and 3.5 years—considered a critical threshold for long-term survival.

Characteristics of guardians

One of the most interesting findings concerns the guardians themselves. While their role is crucial, one might expect differences based on age, gender, or employment status.

In fact, the data show no significant impact of these variables on tree growth or survival.

The determining factor is simpler: the consistent presence of someone taking care of the tree.

Community involvement

Qualitative analysis highlights the central role of the community, beyond financial incentives.

Among the reasons cited by guardians:

• 44% mentioned economic incentives
• the rest referred to attachment to nature and the cultural value of baobabs

Notably, 75% of those interviewed in later stages said they would continue even without compensation—suggesting a progressive internalization of the project’s value.

Strengths and limitations

The authors acknowledge some limitations:

• temporal differences between datasets
• non-identical climatic conditions
• limited sample size for some analyses
• insufficient observation period for reproductive stages

These do not invalidate the results but call for caution in generalization.

The study confirms key points from ecological restoration literature:

• project success largely depends on post-planting management
• community involvement is a decisive factor

In the case of baobabs, early-stage protection is essential to overcome the main mortality factor: grazing.

It also highlights the socio-economic dimension: such projects are not only ecological interventions but also tools to support local economies.

Conclusions

The Baobab Guardians Project clearly shows one central point: planting alone is not enough to ensure the success of reforestation projects.

The decisive factor is continuous care, made possible by the active involvement of local communities.

The results show that:

• early-stage protection is crucial
• livestock pressure is the main risk
• the presence of guardians drastically reduces mortality

In this sense, guardianship and community building emerge as effective strategies to improve tree survival and, more broadly, the effectiveness of ecological restoration efforts.

The study also suggests that:

• the social dimension is not secondary, but structural
• ecological sustainability is closely linked to economic and cultural sustainability

These findings highlight the need to rethink reforestation models, systematically integrating local communities not only in the planting phase, but throughout the entire life cycle of trees.