Twice a year, the FAO publishes its Food Outlook, one of the world's most authoritative reports on global agricultural markets. It is not a report about climate change, nor is it a publication focused on sustainability. Instead, it provides a detailed economic analysis of agricultural production, trade, prices, stocks and market prospects for the world's main food commodities, from cereals and sugar to vegetable oils, meat, dairy and fisheries.
That is precisely why the June 2026 edition stands out.
Page after page, the report reveals a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: climate is no longer just an environmental concern. It has become one of the key variables shaping the global food economy.
At first glance, the report paints a relatively reassuring picture. Following a record cereal harvest in 2025, global production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 while remaining close to historic highs. Global stocks are still comfortable and, at least in the short term, there is no indication of a widespread food shortage.
Looking only at these figures, the global food system appears remarkably resilient.
Yet the FAO encourages readers to look beyond production volumes. While food availability remains high, the conditions under which food is produced have become significantly more unstable. Throughout the report, one message emerges repeatedly: agricultural markets are now exposed to a growing number of risks that were far less influential just a decade ago.
Climate uncertainty is at the top of that list.
The possible return of El Niño, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and the growing unpredictability of seasonal patterns are mentioned across nearly every commodity outlook. Not because global production is expected to collapse, but because these factors make harvests, trade flows and prices far more difficult to anticipate.
It marks an important shift in perspective. The question is no longer simply how much food the world can produce, but how resilient the entire system is when faced with disruption.
One of the report's most compelling insights is that agriculture can no longer be analysed in isolation.
Food commodity prices are shaped by much more than rainfall or crop yields. Energy markets, fertilizer costs, trade policies, geopolitical tensions, maritime transport and even exchange rates all play an increasingly important role.
A good harvest alone is no longer enough to guarantee market stability.
This idea runs throughout the report. Conflicts in the Near East, for example, are discussed primarily because of their impact on shipping routes and logistics costs. Natural gas prices continue to influence fertilizer markets, while energy policies affect the profitability of specific crops. Agriculture is presented as part of a much broader economic system, where decisions made far beyond the farm gate increasingly influence what happens in farmers' fields.
In other words, food markets have become deeply interconnected with energy, geopolitics and global trade.
Among the report's special features, one of the most fascinating explores the relationship between sugar and ethanol in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer and exporter.
At first sight, it may seem like a highly technical subject. In reality, it perfectly illustrates how agricultural markets are evolving.
Sugarcane can be processed into either food-grade sugar or fuel ethanol. Whenever ethanol becomes more profitable, mills allocate a larger share of the harvest to fuel production, leaving less sugar available for food markets.
This mechanism has long been understood.
What is new, according to the FAO, is how this relationship has changed over time.
Using daily price data from 2012 to 2026, the report shows that although sugar and ethanol remain closely linked, the market now adjusts much more slowly than it once did. Energy shocks continue to influence sugar prices almost immediately, but the process through which markets return to equilibrium has become significantly less efficient.
The reasons are structural: the rapid expansion of maize-based ethanol, increasingly specialised processing facilities, biofuel policies that sustain ethanol demand independently of sugar prices, and technological developments across the sector.
The consequence is clear. Fluctuations in energy markets can now have longer-lasting effects on food prices than they did in the past.
It is a striking example of why agriculture can no longer be understood without considering the wider economic context.
Although the word itself is not repeated on every page, resilience is arguably the central idea behind the Food Outlook 2026.
Resilience means maintaining agricultural production despite climate variability, rising energy costs, disrupted trade routes or geopolitical instability. It means building farming systems that can absorb shocks rather than simply maximise output under ideal conditions.
From this perspective, food security is no longer measured solely by the amount of food produced today, but by the ability to keep producing tomorrow under increasingly uncertain conditions.
This is where the report intersects with Treedom's work.
In agroforestry systems, trees are planted alongside crops rather than replacing them. Many of these are fruit trees, helping farming families diversify both their food sources and their income. As they mature, trees generally become more resilient than annual crops to seasonal variability and extreme weather, contributing to the long-term stability of the farming system as a whole.
The Food Outlook 2026 does not prescribe a single solution to the challenges facing global agriculture. But it points clearly towards one direction: the future of food security will increasingly depend on our ability to build agricultural systems that can adapt to uncertainty.
And it is difficult to imagine that future without recognising the role that trees can play in making agriculture more diverse, more stable and ultimately more resilient.