In recent years, tree planting has become one of the most widespread strategies to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem degradation. No one knows this better than we do. Agroforestry, reforestation, and afforestation programs are being implemented globally, supported by governments, international organizations, and private initiatives.
However, despite the growing number of trees being planted, one crucial issue remains relatively underexplored—and often underestimated: the medium- to long-term survival of those trees.
The paper
“The involvement of community members significantly increases the success of tree planting projects – a case study of baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) planting, South Africa” directly addresses this point, analyzing comparatively the survival and growth of trees planted with and without the active involvement of local communities. As you might expect, this is a crucial topic for us at Treedom.
The study makes a significant contribution to the reforestation debate by shifting the focus from the planting phase to the less visible but decisive stage of post-planting management. Here, we present it in a structured and analytical way, leaving its interpretation to a separate editorial.
The focus of the study is the African baobab (Adansonia digitata), an iconic species of semi-arid ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa. The baobab plays a fundamental role both ecologically and socio-economically:
In the Vhembe region of South Africa, baobab fruit collection represents a significant component of the rural economy.
Despite high seed production and good viability, natural regeneration of baobabs is limited. The main issue is not germination, but the survival of young plants, strongly influenced by:
The early growth phase is therefore the main bottleneck for species regeneration. These factors are compounded by broader dynamics:
All of which make the survival of young plants increasingly difficult.
In response to these challenges, the Baobab Foundation launched the Baobab Guardians Project, a reforestation program based on the direct involvement of local communities.
The model is relatively simple but well structured:
In many ways, this model mirrors the one we apply in Treedom projects worldwide. The project involved five villages in the Vhembe district and led to the planting of 101 trees between 2014 and 2020.
A distinctive feature is the incentive system:
This threshold is not arbitrary: it represents the point at which the tree is considered sufficiently developed to withstand browsing pressure.
Data on “guarded” baobabs were collected between 2014 and 2024, with a final assessment in 2025. For each tree, the following were recorded: height, circumference, canopy area, health status, presence of flowers and fruits, and overall survival status.
In parallel, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 57 guardians to understand their motivations and level of engagement.
Tree survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, which estimates survival probability over time. Differences between guarded and unguarded trees were tested using the log-rank test.
Additional analyses examined:
Results
The most significant finding concerns the difference in survival between guarded and unguarded trees—a striking gap.
This is not surprising, as the greatest challenges occur in the first months of life and decrease significantly after the first three years.
The analysis shows that the main causes of mortality are not what one might expect. It is not drought—almost negligible in the data—but livestock activity (browsing and trampling).
Other factors—such as drought or, conversely, root rot due to excess water—play a marginal role.
This suggests that grazing pressure is the main limiting factor in early growth stages.
In much of sub-Saharan Africa, livestock farming is based on extensive free-grazing systems: cattle, goats, and donkeys move daily across open landscapes, often without fences, feeding directly on available vegetation. It is a deeply rooted model, essential for the livelihoods of millions of people, but one that implies a constant presence of animals in the landscape.
In this context, young plants are highly exposed: browsing and trampling are structural, not occasional factors, significantly affecting survival in the first years of life.
Guarded trees show rapid growth in the early years, with most reaching 3 meters in height between 2.5 and 3.5 years—considered a critical threshold for long-term survival.
One of the most interesting findings concerns the guardians themselves. While their role is crucial, one might expect differences based on age, gender, or employment status.
In fact, the data show no significant impact of these variables on tree growth or survival.
The determining factor is simpler: the consistent presence of someone taking care of the tree.
Qualitative analysis highlights the central role of the community, beyond financial incentives.
Among the reasons cited by guardians:
Notably, 75% of those interviewed in later stages said they would continue even without compensation—suggesting a progressive internalization of the project’s value.
The authors acknowledge some limitations:
These do not invalidate the results but call for caution in generalization.
The study confirms key points from ecological restoration literature:
In the case of baobabs, early-stage protection is essential to overcome the main mortality factor: grazing.
It also highlights the socio-economic dimension: such projects are not only ecological interventions but also tools to support local economies.
The Baobab Guardians Project clearly shows one central point: planting alone is not enough to ensure the success of reforestation projects.
The decisive factor is continuous care, made possible by the active involvement of local communities.
The results show that:
In this sense, guardianship and community building emerge as effective strategies to improve tree survival and, more broadly, the effectiveness of ecological restoration efforts.
The study also suggests that:
These findings highlight the need to rethink reforestation models, systematically integrating local communities not only in the planting phase, but throughout the entire life cycle of trees.